Does US Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Index Predict G7 Stock Returns? Evidence Beyond Symmetry

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Baker et al. (2020) [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10, 742–758.] proposed the infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV) index, which tracks US equity market volatility caused by infectious diseases. We extended the literature by using this newly developed ID-EMV index to examine its asymmetric effect on the share market returns of the G7 countries, which include the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and the United States of America. Moreover, we used novel techniques like the quantile-on-quantile regression test, quantile cointegration test, and quantile unit root test. The quantile cointegration test indicates that the infectious disease EMV index is cointegrated with G7 stock returns. Moreover, the quantile-on-quantile regression technique reveals that the infectious disease index positively affects stock returns during bullish states of the stock markets. In contrast, it negatively affects stock returns during bearish states of the stock market returns. The negative effect of the bearish states implies that investors may discourage investments during the downturns of the economy, whereas they need to boost their investments during economic booms.

The effect of globalisation, foreign direct investment, and natural resource rent on economic recovery: Evidence from G7 economies

Economic and natural resources are key indicators that significantly contribute to reducing environmental degradation and promoting economic progress in the present age of globalisation. Therefore, this study analyses the relationship between globalisation, foreign direct investment, and natural resource rent on economic recovery for the G7 nations between 2000 and 2020. We have the applied GMM model to analyse linkages among the variables. According to the empirical results of our model, higher natural resource rent impedes the economic development of G7 countries. Foreign direct investment, financial development, technological innovation, and involvement in trade openness are combined to produce economic growth. Another intriguing conclusion from this study is the synergistic effect of natural resources and foreign direct investment on economic development. Therefore, it can be claimed that in the case of the G7 nations, human capital development helps offset the effects of the resource curse. In contrast, economic globalisation impedes the growth of the financial sector. The empirical data offers policymakers a fresh perspective on exploiting natural resources as a tool for long-term financial growth.

Spillover and connectedness among G7 real estate investment trusts: The effects of investor sentiment and global factors

This paper examines the dynamic spillover interconnectedness of G7 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets. We use the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), the time-varying parameters vector-autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, and the quantile regression approach. The result show that REITs network connectedness is dynamic and experiences an abrupt increase in the first wave of COVID-19 outbreak (2020Q1). We also observe a substantial abrupt decrease in connectedness during the success of vaccination programs (end 2021). The connectedness among assets is much stronger during COVID-19 than before. The REITs of Japan and Italy are net receivers of spillover and those of US and UK are net transmitters of spillovers before and during COVID-19. Conversely, the REIT of Canada and Germany (France) switches from net receivers (contributors) of spillovers before the pandemic to net contributors (receivers) during the COVID-19. Finally, we show that News Sentiment index, Geopolitical Risk index, Economic Policy Uncertainty index, US Treasury yield, and Stock Volatility index influence the spillover magnitude across quantiles. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

Are Bitcoin and Gold a Safe Haven during COVID-19 and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine War?

Our investigation strives to unearth the best portfolio hedging strategy for the G7 stock indices through Bitcoin and gold using daily data relevant to the period 2 January 2016 to 5 January 2023. This study uses the DVECH-GARCH model to model dynamic correlation and then compute optimal hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness. The empirical findings show that Bitcoin and gold were rather effective hedge assets before COVID-19 and diversifiers during the pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war. From hedging effectiveness perspectives, gold and Bitcoin are safe-haven assets, and the investment risk of G7 stock indices could be hedged by taking a short position during thepandemic period and war except for the pair Nikkei/Gold. Additionally, gold beats Bitcoin in terms of hedging efficiency. We thus demonstrate the central role of Bitcoin and gold as financial market participants, particularly during market turmoil and downward movements. Our findings can be of interest to investors, regulators, and governments to take into consideration the role of Bitcoin in financial markets.

Innovation and High-Tech Trends and Their Contribution to the Transition to a New Quality of Economic Growth

The paper focuses on trends in innovation and high technology in the COVID-19 crisis and the contribution of these trends to the transition to a new quality of economic growth in the Decade of Action. The research is based on regression, correlation, trend analysis, and variation analysis on the example of the G7 and BRICS countries in 2019–2021. The article contributes to the literature by clarifying the scientific statements of the Theory of New Quality of Economic Growth from the perspective of innovation and high technology. It is proved that the COVID-19 crisis caused not a recession but a rethinking of innovation and high technology—changing their role from a catalyst for accelerating the rate of economic growth to a source of improving the quality of economic growth. The paper substantiates that the effects of the COVID-19 crisis are not so much related to a decrease in the rate but rather to an increase in the quality of economic growth. The author demonstrates that the prospects for a new quality of economic growth and its definition in the Decade of Action are determined not so much by economic crises as by innovation and high technology as mechanisms of economic crisis management. This offers great opportunities to improve the quality of economic growth in the Decade of Action through the management of innovation and high technology, which is much more manageable than economic crises. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Did the Market Indices of G7 Countries Recover Evenly from the Start of COVID-19 (January 2020) Through December 2021?

Earlier work documented how COVID-19 affected the performance of the stock market indices around the world (Bieszk-Stolorz and Dmytrow, 2021;Lento and Gradojevic, 2021). Research has yet to investigate the longer-term recovery of these market indices. From a buy-and-hold perspective, this paper compares the recovery of indices in G7 countries and Hong Kong from the beginning of the pandemic in January 2020 to June 2021. The empirical results show that the null hypothesis of equal individual monthly returns in the indices of G7 countries and Hong Kong cannot be rejected. However, the null hypothesis of equal buy-and-hold returns in the indices of G7 countries and Hong Kong from January 2020 through June 2021 can be rejected, indicating that the market recovery status among the G7 countries and Hong Kong from the start of COVID-19 in January 2020 through June 2021 has been uneven and unequal. Copyright © 2022 GMP Press and Printing.

What effects will Covid-19 have on the G7 stock markets? New evidence from a cross-quantilogram approach

With several commodity and financial markets allegedly performing poorly during the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic, the objective of this study is to examine how the pandemic has affected stock markets in the G7 economies. The study applies the recently developed cross-quantilogram model introduced by Han et al. (2016) to investigate quantile dependence between the conditional stock return distributions of G7 countries and the total daily global confirmed Covid-19 cases across investment horizons. The results reveal that the cross-quantile dependence between the confirmed Covid-19 cases and G7 stock returns is most significant in the short and medium term. The interlinkage weakens as the lag period lengthens. These findings imply that, in the short and medium term, stock markets in the G7 countries reacted negatively and disproportionately to the increase in the number of daily verified Covid-19 cases. Besides, cross-quantile correlations calculated from recursive subsamples indicate that they change over time, especially in low and medium quantiles, suggesting that they are prone to jumps and discontinuities in the dependence structures. The findings can aid investors and policymakers in better understanding stock market dynamics, particularly during times of great stress and unknown events.

Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies

This study investigates the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for sovereign debt in the G-7 and E-7 economies and explores the notion of sovereign bonds as a safe haven. Using a set of panel regression and dynamic connectedness TVP-VAR approaches, our results reveal that the impact of COVID-19 global case numbers on sovereign bonds has been contingent on the level of the country's financial and economic development. More precisely, our findings suggest that G-7 countries, where economic development is typically higher, have seen a negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yield: sovereign 10-year bond yields declined as the number of COVID-19 global confirmed cases increased in G-7 countries. However, in E-7 countries, where economic growth and development are typically lower, sovereign bond yields responded positively to the initial increase in COVID-19 global confirmed case numbers, but this positive effect is not statistically significant. We also find that the G-7 and E-7 economies have a strong time-varying connectedness in relation to their bond markets and this effect is more pronounced in G-7 economies. Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility is likely to be the strongest predictor of total connectedness. Concomitantly, we shed new light on the predictive power of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker on the interdependence of these sovereign bond markets. Overall, this paper highlights the heterogeneous effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yields in G-7 and E-7 countries and the notion that the developed economies, with their developed sovereign bond markets, are still seen as a safe haven during times of crisis. © 2023 The Authors

Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies

This study investigates the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for sovereign debt in the G-7 and E-7 economies and explores the notion of sovereign bonds as a safe haven. Using a set of panel regression and dynamic connectedness TVP-VAR approaches, our results reveal that the impact of COVID-19 global case numbers on sovereign bonds has been contingent on the level of the country's financial and economic development. More precisely, our findings suggest that G-7 countries, where economic development is typically higher, have seen a negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yield: sovereign 10-year bond yields declined as the number of COVID-19 global confirmed cases increased in G-7 countries. However, in E-7 countries, where economic growth and development are typically lower, sovereign bond yields responded positively to the initial increase in COVID-19 global confirmed case numbers, but this positive effect is not statistically significant. We also find that the G-7 and E-7 economies have a strong time-varying connectedness in relation to their bond markets and this effect is more pronounced in G-7 economies. Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility is likely to be the strongest predictor of total connectedness. Concomitantly, we shed new light on the predictive power of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker on the interdependence of these sovereign bond markets. Overall, this paper highlights the heterogeneous effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yields in G-7 and E-7 countries and the notion that the developed economies, with their developed sovereign bond markets, are still seen as a safe haven during times of crisis.

EVIDENCE FROM DYNAMIC SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTS ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAX REVENUES AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURES IN G7 COUNTRIES

In this study, it is aimed to determine the symmetric and asymmetric causal relations between tax revenues and public expenditures in G7 countries. Annual data for the years 1990 through 2021 were used to determine the relationships between the variables. The Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap symmetric causality test, the Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap asymmetric causality test, and the Hatemi-J (2021) dynamic bootstrap symmetric and asymmetric causality tests were used. The symmetric and asymmetric causality tests revealed few causal linkages between the variables, however the dynamic symmetric and asymmetric causality tests revealed more causal relationships. According to our research, it is essential to use dynamic analysis methods that can generate unique outcomes for sub-periods rather than analysis methods that generate a single result for the entire period in dynamic domains like public expenditure and national tax policies. In reality, it has been noted that throughout the Quantitative Easing period introduced following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in the USA and during the COVID 19 process, public spending have expanded independently of budget revenues. Similar circumstances occurred in France during the EU debt crisis (2013– 2017), in Italy during the Great Recession of 2007–2009, and during COVID 19. When the global economic environment was favorable between 2017 and 2019, Germany, United Kingdom, and Italy organized their public expenditures in accordance with tax revenues, functioning within the framework of the Tax-Spend Hypothesis. As a result, for the effectiveness of fiscal policy, nations may use various fiscal policy techniques during various economic conjuncture times. © 2022, Symmetrion. All rights reserved.

Does Us Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Index Predict G7 Stock Returns? Evidence Beyond Symmetry

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Baker et al. (2020) [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10, 742-758.] proposed the infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV) index, which tracks US equity market volatility caused by infectious diseases. We extended the literature by using this newly developed ID-EMV index to examine its asymmetric effect on the share market returns of the G7 countries, which include the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and the United States of America. Moreover, we used novel techniques like the quantile-on-quantile regression test, quantile cointegration test, and quantile unit root test. The quantile cointegration test indicates that the infectious disease EMV index is cointegrated with G7 stock returns. Moreover, the quantile-on-quantile regression technique reveals that the infectious disease index positively affects stock returns during bullish states of the stock markets. In contrast, it negatively affects stock returns during bearish states of the stock market returns. The negative effect of the bearish states implies that investors may discourage investments during the downturns of the economy, whereas they need to boost their investments during economic booms.

Category-specific EPU indices, macroeconomic variables and stock market return predictability

This paper mainly investigates whether the category-specific EPU indices have predictability for stock market returns. Empirical results show that the content of category-specific EPU can significantly predict the stock market return, no matter the individual category-specific EPU index or the principal component of category -specific EPU indices. In addition, the information of category-specific EPU indices can also have higher eco-nomic gains than traditional macroeconomic variables, even considering the trading cost and different investor risk aversion coefficients. During different forecasting windows, multi-period forecast horizons and the COVID-19 pandemic, we find the information contained in category-specific EPU indices can have better performances than that of the macroeconomic variables. Our paper tries to provide new evidence for stock market returns based on category-specific EPU indices.

Corporate payout, cash holdings, and the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from the G-7 countries.

This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the adjustments of dividends and share repurchases of publicly listed firms in the G-7 countries. Firms in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy experienced a widespread cut in dividends, while firms in the United States and Canada cut cash payout more via share repurchases, with Japanese firms in between. Corporate cash holdings helped mitigate the negative impact of COVID on payout adjustments, but the impact was less significant for European firms.

Vicious Cycle of Economic Growth, PM2.5 and COVID-19: Evidence from G7 Countries

Developed countries with high use of fossil fuels in production can harm the environment by contributing more to the formation of greenhouse gases on a global scale. Air pollution is expected to increase the number of COVID-19 cases in G7 countries with significant industrial output. The aim of the study is to reveal the awareness of the role of air pollution due to traditional industrial production which caused the spread of the epidemic, both on economic growth and its role in the spread of the epidemic. Research is based on monthly data covering the period 2019:12-2021:7. The empirical analysis has been utilized for the panel cointegration test and the dynamic causality analysis. Particles classified as PM2.5 have been utilized as air pollution indicators. Health expenses, in order to control general trends on economic growth and pollution, were also included in the study. The findings of this study indicate that PM2.5 particle ratios and COVID-19 cases are increasing while economic growth is taking place in the G7 countries. If these data are associated with the use of fossil fuels in industries, they will contribute to the creation of public policies that encourage a new generation of energy sources in production. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Polish Journal of Environmental Studies is the property of Scientific Investigation Committee and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Spatiotemporal Variation and Driving Factors of Embodied Carbon in China-G7 Trade

China and G7 countries contribute 70% global GDP and 55% global carbon emissions. The carbon leakage between China and G7 is a crucial issue in achieving the synergetic emission abatement globally. The motivation of this study is to evaluate the embodied carbon transfer between China and G7 in the trade between 2000 and 2014, and investigate the driving factors that impact the embodied carbon trend. A multiregional input–output (MRIO) model based on the WIOD database is constructed, and a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is employed. The results indicate that China plays the role of net exporter of embodied carbon in trade with G7, which mainly flows to the US (5825.67 Mt), Japan (3170.36 Mt) and Germany (1409.93 Mt). However, China’s embodied carbon exports to the G7 show an inverted U-shaped trend with a turning point after financial crisis, while the G7’s embodied carbon exports to China continue to rise. The conclusion is that to achieve the climate goal of carbon neutrality, it is not enough to rely solely on the low-carbon transition on the production side, the demand side should also be adjusted.

Impact of Brexit on G7 properties

In this article, we adopted the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) Markov-switching model of Yoon to examine the contribution of the UK housing business cycle to the common G7 housing business cycle between housing price and GDP seeking to access the impact of Brexit on G7 properties. Taking a sample of G7 countries we investigated a period of over 50 years, using quarterly data from 1970:II to 2020:IV. Our findings demonstrate that UK GDP is a significant variable contributing to the G7 GDP growth, and furthermore that the UK housing price is a significant variable to the G7 housing prices. Considering common international housing business cycle, we found that the UK is not a significant variable for determining the common international housing business cycle between housing price and the real growth of output in the G7 countries. Finally, applying a FIML Markov-switching model to the G7 countries, we found a common international housing business cycle during the oil shock periods of the 1970s, the financial crisis in 2008, and COVID-19 pandemic. These findings are the first empirical evidence of the comparison of COVID-19 pandemic and other crises in terms of common international housing business cycle, thus providing significant input for policymakers.

COVID-19 pandemic and risk dynamics of financial markets in G7 countries

Purpose>The purpose of this study is twofold: to examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risk dynamics of stock and bond markets in G7 countries;and to examine if the stock-bond risk dynamics can be linked to government measures to contain the pandemic.Design/methodology/approach>To examine the pandemic impact on the risk dynamics of the bond and stock markets, this study chooses G7 countries for their efficient financial market properties. This study uses standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) and exponential GARCH (1,1) models to determine the most volatile and sensitive market, most persistent market during the crisis and the leverage effect between stock and bond markets. This study then uses a panel study to investigate whether this volatility in stock and bond markets is affected by the COVID-19 cases and various government responses (fiscal stimulus packages, monetary policy, emergency investment in health care and vaccine investment).Findings>The findings of the study confirm that the bad news of the pandemic is causing higher volatility than good news for all seven stock markets. Canadian stock and bond markets are the most volatile, and Italian bond and stock markets are the most sensitive G7 countries. Japan has shown the highest persistence, and the stock market exhibits higher leverage than the bond market. Fiscal stimulus packages are helping to reduce bond market volatility, but none of these measures are effective in the stock market.Research limitations/implications>The pandemic is still spreading, and the rate at which it spreads wildly will always pose a limitation to any attempt to examine its full effect.Practical implications>Investigation of market volatility will help policymakers and market players formulate the best strategies to overcome and exit the crisis and plan post-pandemic solutions. It provides valuable insights for investors to rebalance their portfolios during highly volatile markets while preserving their risk appetite and investment objectives.Originality/value>The paper provides evidence on the impact of the pandemic-induced crisis and the respective government responses on the volatility of competing capital markets (stock and bond) in countries that are considered most efficient in reflecting news.

COVID-19 related media sentiment and the yield curve of G-7 economies

We explore the connectedness of the components of the sovereign yield curve (slope, level and curvature) across G-7 countries and media sentiment about COVID-19. The recent pandemic is a unique opportunity to identifying the transmitters and receivers of risk. Our results indicate that media sentiment along with the US yield curve components are main transmitter of spillovers, whereas Japan is the leading recipient of spillover. Among the European countries, we notice France as a major transmit, whereas Germany and UK switch role as transmitter and receiver alternatively. The results are important for mapping the interconnectedness between countries. In addition, policy makers can use them when devising disaster plans to prepare for future market crises.

Extreme dependence and risk spillover across G7 and China stock markets before and during the COVID-19 period

Purpose The paper analyzes downside and upside risk spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach By using VAR-ADCC models and conditional value at risk (CoVaR) techniques, downside and upside risk spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China are analyzed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings The results suggested existence of a significant and asymmetrical two-way risk transmission between majority of pair markets, but the degree of asymmetry differs according to the use of the entire cumulative distributions or distribution tails. Downside and upside risk spillovers are significantly larger before the COVID-19 pandemic in all cases except between CAC 40/DAX and S&P/SSE pairs. Originality/value The paper used CoVaR and delta-CoVaR to investigate the downside and upside spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dynamic and frequency spillovers between green bonds, oil and G7 stock markets: Implications for risk management

This paper examines the dynamic and frequency spillovers between global Green Bonds (GBs), WTI oil and G7 stock markets using the time-frequency spillover index by Baruník and Křehlík (2018) and wavelet coherency approach. The results show that the spilllovers is dynamic and crisis-sensitive. Furthermore, adding GBs and oil futures to stock portfolio reduces the spillover size during turmoil periods. The short-term spillovers (up to five trading days) represent the largest proportion of the total spillovers. A significant jump in spillovers is observed in the early of COVID-19 outbreak (March-April 2020). Interestingly, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and UK are the net transmitters of spillovers, whereas Japan and GBs are the net recipients of the spillovers, irrespective of time horizons. Oil and US stock market shift from net contributors in short term to net receipts in medium and long terms. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals significant co-movements between G7 stock markets and both oil and GBs. The co-movements are more pronounced in both medium and long terms and during COVID-19 spread where both oil and GBs lead stock markets. GBs provide higher diversification benefits to G7 investors than oil in the short-term. The hedging is expensive at the long term for GBs and intermediate term for WTI oil. Finally, the hedge effectiveness of crude oil is higher than GBs, irrespective of time horizons.